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News release


‘3000 club’ key to unlocking Sydney’s next development hotspot

A combination of favourable demographics and planning controls reveals the expected source of Sydney’s next building hotspot

​Using the latest 2016 Census data, JLL Research has concluded from analysis that 3000 is the number of 25-35 year olds living in one suburb that identifies it as a millennial hotspot in Sydney's inner city.

JLL's Senior Research Analyst – Residential, Vince De Zoysa said, "The Inner West is Sydney's millennial heartland, though the story is deeper than just smashed avocado and lattes."

"We've used the '3000 club' formula to identify suburbs that have already attracted millennials and to forecast the suburbs that are on the cusp of becoming millennial hotspots. 

Inner West suburbs that meet the criteria and fall into the '3000 club' have risen in three waves:

  • 1st wave – Newtown, Glebe and Erskinville established
  • 2nd wave – Petersham and Marrickville expansion
  • 3rd Wave - Currently taking place now around Dulwich Hill, Canterbury and Hurlstone Park

"We have identified Dulwich Hill as the next cultural hub but a lack of appropriately zoned land for high density sites means developers may look to nearby Hurlstone Park and Canterbury as the suburbs offer more contiguous sites available for development," Mr De Zoysa said.

Sydney's Inner West – which reaches from Newtown to Olympic Park – is a major part of the Sydney apartment boom. JLL Research figures indicate as many as 12,000 units will complete in the area in the next five years. The Inner West will account for 25% of the apartment pipeline over the next five years in Inner Sydney, within a 10km radius of the CBD.

JLL's Director Valuations and Advisory – NSW, Tyrone Hodge said, "There aren't many suburbs that are both feasible for development and offer good demographics. This makes the hunt for sites harder for developers and is putting upward pressure on prices."

Sydney's Inner South – around Zetland, Waterloo and Green Square – was traditionally an industrial heartland before rezoning to residential use drove an apartment construction boom in the area. JLL Research figures indicate as many as 20,000 units will complete in the area in the next five years, which accounts for 40% of the potential Inner Sydney pipeline.

"Longer term, we see the currently-Industrialised Sydenham as a possible future hotspot. Most sites were optioned off years ago and now is the time to build on them. Sydenham is a key stop on the Sydney metro which gives it massive upside, but having appropriate planning is a major constraint on feasibility and timeframes," Mr Hodge concluded.